Kris – I was all prepared to comment on this until I checked the link you so thoughtfully provided to the SP/Case-Schiller Index Methodology. I’m on page 9 (of 40), so give me a a few hours (or a month?) to figure out the algorithms and I’ll be back to you. Right now all I have is a major headache. Thanks.

Hey! good meeting you at the blogger san diego meet up. I used to work for this place that made postcard mailers for real estate people. Their whole selling point was that each card could be personalized with the recipients name. I don’t know if that’s something you do but I can try to swing you a discount !

http://www.eudicor.com/

Kris:

“No buyer wants to feel like they’re going to buy a house today and it’s going to be worth less tomorrow,” Berg said.

Exactly. Well put.

As one of the many[?] non-realtor/real estate industry readers of your blog, I thank you for refraining from saying: “it’s a great time to buy so long as you plan to live there at least twelve years” or the like. Credibility points for you.

p.s., please let Steve work on the “bummer numbers” stuff, so you have more time to post your Erma Brombeckesq stories. Or at least work in another the red versus brown meatloaf sauce controversy. Things are a bit too grim out there.

I should have mentioned for your other readers that the quoted Kris Berg quote is from today’s “Voice of San Diego – Real Estate” article by Kelly Bennett.

Let’s see if I can provide the link (you may have to copy and paste into your browser):

http://tinyurl.com/3b99fo

Thanks Smithers. I’m somewhat offended (I think).

Ugh. I sort of wish you hadn’t linked, but I will take this opportunity to say that my choice of words was regrettable when delivered in this context. PLEASE know that I meant “lower-end” as in “more affordable.” We were comparing inland communities to La Jolla and others. Unfortunately, it didn’t come out as intended AT ALL.

Steve,

Don’t get me wrong. No one, and I mean NO ONE, does “bummer numbers” posts like you do.

There. Feelings all better?

Kris – No worries. (Edited so that we may keep our blog and our jobs.) Your head should be secure (for now).

Smithers – If you were licensed, you just lost it. (Smiley face added by Kris because she knows how much you like them)

Oops. Definitely my bad. I didn’t even make the connection (but I do now!) Reason number 37 that I will never be in the real estate biz. OK, I’ll go away now. Your blog is safe, again.

“Therefore, the true price differences may very well be understated.”

I was hoping you’d point that out. Well done, great post! One thing I want to note (I know Kris picked this up, but some people might not have) was that the graph is a measure of change or delta. Anything below the middle line means that prices are still falling. So if you see it spike up later this year, prices are still going down. Just at a reduced rate.

My opinion is there really is no point in buying till that line gets back to the middle again. It’s not like you won’t have tons of selection then, and you can probably afford more house too

Sven – Thanks for clarifying the graph. At first blush, I almost made the same mistake (of thinking it was showig price trends). Steve and I were actually discussing that yesterday.

It’s good information – the thing is, it ONLY applies to the 20 metro areas it surveys. The problem with CS is that the information is taken to mean national, when it’s not even close to being national.

Thanks as always for the great information, I passively watch San Diego, and much of the west coast because of the amount of second home buyer’s I have coming from there.
I’ve always had a problem with CS for the reasons Christina mentioned. I tend to default to OFHEO numbers… not much better, but at least Utah has a couple of representative MSA’s on the list.
Keep up the good work.

Sometimes numbers are not always black and white. With a little artistry you can make the case for any point you are trying to make. For instance, here in Pasadena, we have been selling close to 50% fewer units in the last few months vs last year.

In our zip code 91103 to the west of the Rose Bowl you have million dollar homes and to the east you have the highest per capita rate of foreclosures in the city, yet the median price is now over $1MM. Why, simply becasue homes that were $625.0 are now high $4′s & low $500′s and are not selling.

So many of these studies and published data don’t provide an explanation of the housing market, other than its just down. Kind of like the business that continues to be profitable despite the fact that it is having to cut its margins and still sells less. What they failed to mention was that expenses have been cut to the bone.

Christina, Andy and Doug – You’ll get no argument from me. Numbers are funny that way. They can be anything you want them to be, yet for the metro areas surveyed and if you take the data in the context of a macro look, they are good indicators of our current behavior and trends.

[...] a methodology which is almost as deciperable as Google’s. We tried to shed some light on it here.  For our purposes in San Diego, you need only understand that our trend line is still heading [...]