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Reason #47 for why your home isn't flying off the shelf: Supply and Demand

This from the “Selling Takes Time” files, Reason #47 for why it’s taking longer than expected to sell your home. We call this one “Supply and Demand,” or “Where did I leave my consumer confidence?”
(By the way, Reasons #1-46 are titled “Price.”)
The following charts show the two-year trends for monthly single-family detached homes under contract versus homes listed for sale in Scripps Ranch (92131).
do.pdf

do.pdf

See how those little lines are reversing direction? If you are a seller, this means greater competition for the fewer, remaining buyers who didn’t respond to the tax credit call to action last Spring.

Scripps Ranch is my ‘hood, so these trends come as no surprise. And, I kind of expected them to be indicative of other areas of the County with similar demographics. Enter Carmel Valley:

do.pdf

do.pdf

Now, at the risk of sounding fallible, this one caught me by surprise. Thanks to what appears to be a very healthy August, their own little lines are still trending in the same direction. Not fair! More smoking distress sale opportunities? I don’t think so. Is it their proximity to the big, blue wet thing which, in concert with soft prices, has made homes there suddenly affordable to many where they were out of reach before? Maybe.

I suppose the only thing this really tells us is what we already knew. Real estate is local. The numbers reported by San Diego Union-Tribune, the Wall Street Journal, and even the crazy Case-Shiller twins tell a regional story, but the story has plot twists when read on the neighborhood level.

By the way, I can provide these snappy little graphs for any Zip in San Diego County. All you have to do is say “please.”

Update: Because Commentor Don asked, here are the charts for 92111 and 92117.



92117 Market Trends 8/10 -

92111 Market Trends 8/10

Kris Berg

Kris Berg is Co-Owner and Designated Broker of San Diego Castles Realty. She has been serving San Diego buyers and sellers since 1997.

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  • Ryan

    Can provide plots for 92111 and 92117. We’re days away from pulling the trigger for a remodeled home and are worried about home prices dropping. Thanks.

  • Ryan

    I forgot…..please.

  • http://sandiegohomeblog.com Kris Berg

    Ryan,
    Well, in that case, you’ve got mail. Let me know if you don’t see it in your inbox.

  • zealot

    I’m amazed at the amount of people who wont even keep their house clean when selling.People are a little turned off when they know pigs lived in the house.

  • http://twitter.com/CMGSanDiego CMGSanDiego

    Reason #47 for why your home isn’t flying off the shelf: Supply and Demand http://ow.ly/18Ur6d

    This comment was originally posted on Twitter

  • http://twitter.com/jojosmojo jojosmojo

    Reason #47 for why your home isn’t flying off the shelf: Supply and Demand http://ping.fm/SoFeD

    This comment was originally posted on Twitter

  • http://www.mauirealestatesearch.com Alex Cortez

    Pricing and exposure. It couldn’t be simpler. It could be the best home in the state but if it’s priced improperly and it’s not marketed properly, the likelihood of selling just diminished substantially.

    Nice graphs, Kris. Can you do them in a candy-cane pattern next time, pretty please?

  • http://www.homeequityguard.com/news/reason-47-for-why-your-home-isn%e2%80%99t-flying-off-the-shelf-supply-and-demand-%e2%80%94-the-san-diego-home-blog/ Reason #47 for why your home isn’t flying off the shelf: Supply and Demand — The San Diego Home Blog | Home Equity Guard

    [...] Reason #47 for why your home isn’t flying off the shelf: Supply and Demand — The San Diego Home …. This entry was posted in News. Bookmark the permalink. ← The U.S. Unreal Real Estate [...]

  • Don Renfro

    Kris,

    Can you post the 92111 and 92117 graphs that you prepared for Ryan? That way the whole class can learn too :)

  • http://sandiegohomeblog.com Kris Berg

    Absolutely. Check back tomorrow morning!

  • http://www.robertmcmonagle.com Robert McMonagle

    Interesting information regarding the market and housing in general. I recently moved to San Diego and am holding off on making a home purchase till I am completely settled at where I want to be living. But I do like it here a lot so far and am enjoying my time so far. Also if your ever looking for any website design help be sure to check out my site at San Diego Web Design

Office Location

  • San Diego Castles Realty
  • 10636 Scripps Summit Court, Suite 153
  • San Diego, CA 92131
  • P: 858.530.2374
  • F: 858.876.1701
  • E: info (at) sandiegocastles.com
  • CA DRE# 01241572

Broker Information

  • Kris Berg, Broker
  • DRE# 01853496
  • Steve Berg, Broker
  • CA DRE# 00762095