A Longer Look Back – San Diego and Scripps Ranch Market Trends (Hurry Up, Altos!)

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I prepared some market trend graphs for a client this week. He asked for the trends, dating back to our approximate peak in the Summer of 2005, in an attempt to get a handle on the significance or not of seasonal influences in a market trending downward.

Until my friends at Altos can clean up the data for San Diego County, at which point I will go back to using their snappy real-time trend charts, I have reverted to pulling the data the old fashioned way – From our local Sandicor Multiple Listing Service. Altos Research admittedly has a better presentation plus their charts will ultimately save me an enormous amount of time, so hurry up guys! (I am assured that they are working on it).

First, for San Diego County:

You can see here that while time to sell declines slightly during the May/June months, the overall trend in market times is up.

This chart suggests that October/November are the lower price-per-square-foot months. I would argue that fewer discretionary sellers are typically listed during these holiday times, and motivation to “get it sold” might be more intense. Again, the chart suggests continued downward trending (no surprise here).

Finally, the number of homes sold from a strictly seasonal perspective will typically be less during January/February, according to this graph. Remember, “sold” in January/February means “off market” in November/December. From a broad brush viewpoint, the trend in number of homes sold continues slightly down as well.

Now for Scripps Ranch, keeping in mind that the sample size is much smaller and subject to greater fluctuation during any given month:

These numbers are all over the place, but seasonal trends seem to hold true for our local 92131 zip code.

Nothing new here, and the same overall down trend is evident.

Finally, we are seeing fewer and fewer buyers in Scripps Ranch. In combination with a growing inventory, this underscores that fact that selling a home today requires more effort, more expertise… and more patience.

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