Reason #47 for why your home isn't flying off the shelf: Supply and Demand

This from the “Selling Takes Time” files, Reason #47 for why it’s taking longer than expected to sell your home. We call this one “Supply and Demand,” or “Where did I leave my consumer confidence?”
(By the way, Reasons #1-46 are titled “Price.”)
The following charts show the two-year trends for monthly single-family detached homes under contract versus homes listed for sale in Scripps Ranch (92131).
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See how those little lines are reversing direction? If you are a seller, this means greater competition for the fewer, remaining buyers who didn’t respond to the tax credit call to action last Spring.

Scripps Ranch is my ‘hood, so these trends come as no surprise. And, I kind of expected them to be indicative of other areas of the County with similar demographics. Enter Carmel Valley:

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Now, at the risk of sounding fallible, this one caught me by surprise. Thanks to what appears to be a very healthy August, their own little lines are still trending in the same direction. Not fair! More smoking distress sale opportunities? I don’t think so. Is it their proximity to the big, blue wet thing which, in concert with soft prices, has made homes there suddenly affordable to many where they were out of reach before? Maybe.

I suppose the only thing this really tells us is what we already knew. Real estate is local. The numbers reported by San Diego Union-Tribune, the Wall Street Journal, and even the crazy Case-Shiller twins tell a regional story, but the story has plot twists when read on the neighborhood level.

By the way, I can provide these snappy little graphs for any Zip in San Diego County. All you have to do is say “please.”

Update: Because Commentor Don asked, here are the charts for 92111 and 92117.



92117 Market Trends 8/10

92111 Market Trends 8/10

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