According to SANDICOR (single family detached homes), there were 17 closed escrows in the 92131 zip code during the month of September. This compares with 22 closed escrows for the same period last year. Interestingly, the average sale price, per square foot, was $324, which is identical to the same period last year. With the mortgage problems coming fully out of the closet in a big way in early August, the reduced number of sales should come as no surprise.
Year-to-date, there have been 230 closed escrows versus 244 during the same period last year (-6%). The sales price per foot dropped to $327 from last years $345 (-5%).
My (unofficial) forecast earlier this year was for an approximate 5-7% decline in average sale prices for 2007. So far, it appears that we are on track for the more optimistic side of my prediction.
Also of interest is that the number of closed escrows, year-to-date, is only off 6% when compared to last year. From 2005 to 2006 there was a 25% reduction in the total number of sales in Scripps Ranch. However, it is important to note that although the number of sales this year continues to run behind last year, the rate of decline has been substantially reduced.
Why is this important? Because the road to recovery will first be revealed by buyer confidence, which is most clearly demonstrated by the number of sales. We are not out of the tunnel, yet. But if the 2007 sales trends continue to close the gap with 2006, we might just begin to see the light in 2008.