Stats Man on the "average" Scripps Ranch home

Stats Man shouldn’t really be this big, because today he just brings you some little stats.

Here is a quick look at the “average” home in (you knew it was coming) Scripps Ranch. The following table shows the profile for the average home on the market, in escrow and recently sold. (For all of you statistics wonks out there, the ones who actually understand complicated stuff like standard deviation and decimal points, I know it’s a small sample. I also know that there is a difference between “average” and “median;” as for the latter, trust me that they were about the same.)

Oh, and Sandicor wants me to tell you that this data was pulled from the Sandicor MLS on 11/19/10, represents detached homes in the 92131 Zip code, and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. In other words, I might have messed up, but I am pretty sure I didn’t.

What’s this mean? Well, first of all, sale prices are about 7.5% off list prices (about 6% if you consider price per square foot). This laughs in the proverbial face of a previous post in which I said that historically, come rain or shine, homes will sell on average within about 4% of their list price.

What gives? Was I wrong? Blasphemy! What we have here, I believe, is a growing disconnect between buyer expectations of bargains and seller perceptions that the rules of the current market do not apply to them. And, case in point, here is a fun fact: 65 of the 120 active listings (students of the math sciences will recognize that this is over 50%) have gone through a price reduction.

And patient (stubborn) doesn’t always pay. Even with an approximate 6-month inventory of detached homes on the market, the average market time for homes sold in the past two months was a mere 45 days. What’s notable, though, is that of the sold properties that had to suffer a price reduction (about 41%), the average market time was 69 days as compared to 29 days for the homes that were priced within striking distance of true market value to begin with.

Oh, and one more thought. Note the trend for the recent pending (“under contract”) properties. They are less expensive, albeit smaller, on average. This is consistent with the general buyer migration away from McMansions and toward “right-sized” properties and is also, I believe, indicative of a tough lending environment. And when I say tough, I mean qualifying for a loan these days is about as simple as climbing Everest in chainmail. (Don’t try it; it won’t work.)

With that, Stats Man has run out of steam. And he has an appraiser to meet.

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