Tour de Stats

In my inbox, I found a special message from the France Hotel Guide this morning. “April events in France,” read the subject line. April in France? Yeah, right. Maybe they’ve forgotten that it is Spring in these parts, and the only trip I will be taking between now and Labor Day is a quick junket to Chula Vista if I can bank enough money and time.

So, while lesser agents are enjoying a latte by the Seine, I will enjoy a morning cut of stats. The numbers aren’t important; instead, here are the  two-year trend lines for Scripps Ranch home sales. Price trends are for detached homes, while number of sales and listings are for all property types.

sr2yr As your tour guide this morning, I will point out the obvious (because that is what tour guides do). The little trend lines are still sinking under the weight of difficult times. But, if you will look up and to your right, notice the pretty red chart. That is the one which shows the number of listings per month.

Inventory is making a comeback.

And it is not just what you see in the chart. Statistics always lag. What we are seeing in the streets, based on the calls we are getting and the agents we are hearing from, is that our market is waking up and remembering what Spring feels like.

I would expect the blue and green charts (number of homes under contract and sold) to also start showing some signs of new life very soon. This bold statement is based on my very scientific analysis of open house activity. Every Sunday for months now we have held one or several of our listings open, and each week the activity has been greater than the last. Now we are consistently seeing 15 to 20 or more groups visiting each, and with the exception of the usual neighbor contingent, all are quite serious about making a home purchase. They are just waiting on the right home and the right value. More inventory should help to boot these buyers off the sidelines and onto the field.

Scripps is a small sample, so here are the same trends for the heart of the I-15 Corridor (Scripps Ranch, Poway, Rancho Bernardo, 4S Ranch and Rancho Penasquitos).


Now, if you will again look up and to the right at the pretty red chart… On second thought, don’t.

What a killjoy.

(If you are itching for a little road trip, you can see all of the charts for the I-15 Corridor communities and for San Diego County in all of their glory here under the “Market Stats” tab.)

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